Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 2.046489 2.169359 2.298665 2.445385 2.607860 2.782983 2.986966
2025-10-19 1.885897 2.058063 2.248175 2.475514 2.742468 3.049203 3.433117
2025-10-26 1.765969 1.963493 2.188561 2.467396 2.808516 3.219130 3.761990
2025-11-02 1.672673 1.886721 2.136661 2.455182 2.858165 3.362692 4.062541
2025-11-09 1.584112 1.806919 2.072128 2.417822 2.867337 3.448945 4.289927
2025-11-16 1.508325 1.736633 2.012818 2.379830 2.868593 3.519768 4.497820
2025-11-23 1.459056 1.695327 1.985725 2.379126 2.915869 3.652985 4.805856
2025-11-30 1.424031 1.669265 1.975366 2.397966 2.988679 3.825439 5.191089
2025-12-07 1.370787 1.617124 1.928071 2.363389 2.982987 3.881611 5.397873
2025-12-14 1.316017 1.560528 1.871997 2.313053 2.950300 3.893038 5.529902
2025-12-21 1.272623 1.516884 1.830898 2.280740 2.940746 3.937497 5.721478
2025-12-28 1.260207 1.513090 1.842451 2.322190 3.041961 4.162642 6.263074
2026-01-04 1.244016 1.504241 1.847490 2.355712 3.135444 4.387899 6.852321
2026-01-11 1.226943 1.493445 1.849194 2.384198 3.222933 4.612225 7.485061
2026-01-18 1.199174 1.466942 1.827624 2.376552 3.251625 4.736707 7.934266
2026-01-25 1.172007 1.440230 1.804519 2.365055 3.272654 4.848696 8.378069
2026-02-01 1.139104 1.404513 1.767201 2.329877 3.251722 4.880898 8.643467
2026-02-08 1.107853 1.370164 1.730629 2.294083 3.227287 4.903846 8.891327
2026-02-15 1.088838 1.352303 1.717147 2.293420 3.262432 5.044234 9.466427
2026-02-22 1.076213 1.342959 1.715580 2.311172 3.330350 5.256192 10.289108
2026-03-01 1.049925 1.313504 1.683441 2.278587 3.306845 5.279622 10.590097
2026-03-08 1.020653 1.279113 1.643036 2.231119 3.253949 5.237212 10.689120
2026-03-15 0.997324 1.252693 1.613768 2.200628 3.230218 5.254606 10.977939